Written by: Roberto R. Bravo, Executive Contributor
Executive Contributors at Brainz Magazine are handpicked and invited to contribute because of their knowledge and valuable insight within their area of expertise.
Given our tendency to concern ourselves only with what is happening under our noses, we soon forget the news we receive about the most dramatic symptoms of climate change. After all, we have the wrong idea that there’s nothing we can do about what happens anywhere else. At the present time, those symptoms are seen mainly in the melting of the poles, mountain peaks, and glaciers, which are places void of the human population, in coral reefs, conveniently hidden underwater for those who don't want to see, and on the Pacific coasts, far from the world's main business and financial centers.
Although hurricanes, storms, and floods are now affecting large urban populations more directly and more strongly than ever before,[1] those disasters only hit certain areas for limited periods of time. Other more widespread current effects, so far, are climatic irregularities such as sudden rises or falls of local temperatures, unexpected outbursts of rain or hail, or unseasonal heatwaves. But, what will happen when the problems that we still want to see as distant come knocking at our door, when growing climatic disturbances reach larger areas, when droughts become more prolonged, and fires, which have already forced unexpected temporary evictions, become even more difficult to control?
This is not a pessimistic hypothetical projection, but a gradual scientific fact, as certain as any scientifically observable process can be.
To properly assess the magnitude of a gradual process, it is useful to extrapolate it to its extremes. Let us imagine for a moment that the scientifically predictable consequences of climate change have reached the entire planet - which, at the current rate of emissions, as indicated by the IPCC Report (Almost Too Late) will be before the end of this century, the first quarter of which, let us remember, is coming to an end.
It is easy to foresee, based on what has happened in similar situations at local levels, that governments will take urgent measures to limit human losses, infrastructure destruction, and supply shortages, to relocate and provide care for those affected, including possible mass displacements, and to prevent possible riots or looting. Many democratic countries will declare states of emergency or exception as some recently did with the COVID-19 pandemic so as to apply compulsory measures, with initial majority support no doubt, since in a catastrophic situation the population expects, and demands, the intervention of the authorities. In this case, the extent and persistence of the problems could lead to the establishment of military controls and perhaps even martial law in many places, which implies the suppression of citizens' rights.
Freedom of expression will most likely be curtailed and restrictions imposed on the media including, of course, the internet, if they are not directly intervened to prevent the spread of denialism and opinions that might hinder the implementation of controls. Possibly, as some problems worsen, the most active opponents would be arrested. On the economic side, the disruption of activities in large sectors due to natural disasters will place additional burdens on governments, which now will be unable to resort to internal or external financing as they did during the pandemic, because economic difficulties and the more than likely fall of stock markets everywhere will affect all countries.
A number of agencies have already made these calculations. According to the Fourth National Climate Assessment Report delivered to the United States government in 2018, in addition to the countless deaths caused directly by excess heat, the consequences of climate change will mean, for the USA alone, losses of several hundred billion dollars over the course of this century. However, this won’t be the worst. For under the unpredictable weather conditions, the disbalances in the natural environment, the destruction of housing and infrastructure, the losses of jobs and sources of employment, and the lack of services and supplies, money will be worthless when the priority is survival.
So much for our extrapolation exercise. A picture not dissimilar to that presented by climate scientists and organizations, long publicized by activist groups, and graphically illustrated by some recent literature and films.
Since climate change is a gradual process, it is very likely that governments will start taking some of those measures, predictably starting with the least coercive ones, before the middle of the century, when the problems become here and now in broader areas, this time without economic benefits to offset the severity of the situation. This could happen around 2040 ― a mere 20 years from now! The question is whether we will still be in time to slow down the advance of global warming (see the most recent IPCC report: 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change) or whether the immediate and finally compulsory suppression of polluting industrial processes and the urgent implementation, without exception, of energy conversion measures, which will necessarily be extended to ever more places, will not come too late. We do not know whether the brake we apply at the last moment will be able to prevent the increasing rise in temperatures towards more intolerable levels.
In the end, the stubbornness of a few influential tycoons and lobbies to maintain the current economic model and the inaction of the politicians who have played along with them will bring for all of us the loss of civil liberties, the ruin of the economy, and the drastic worsening of our living conditions on a planet becoming increasingly inhospitable.
Part of what has brought us to the present situation is the unfortunate conjunction ― sadly, not too rare ― of disproportionate economic interests with political power, sometimes even in the same person. While we still have our civil liberties, we voters should review our eligibility criteria. Donald Trump, when he was in the White House, after receiving the aforementioned Climate Assessment Report backed by more than 300 scientists warning of the effects of climate change on the environment, health, and the economy, brushed aside the 1600 pages of detailed technical analysis with the words "I don't believe it". Can there be any greater display of stupidity?
Robert R. Bravo, Executive Contributor Brainz Magazine
Besides his long experience as a researcher and lecturer on Ethics, Logic of Science, and Philosophy of Language in Universities of Spain and Latin America, Roberto R Bravo writes and teaches management skills in the areas of language and argumentation, coaching, leadership, and conflict management from a philosophical standpoint. Member of the editorial board of some academic and non-academic journals, he has published a number of essays, short stories, books for children, and translations. He is currently working on several books, both fiction and non-fiction.
References:
[1] Thirty tropical storms were recorded in 2020, more than three times the frequency of a century ago. Hurricane Ida, which hit the southeast coast of the United States in 2021, reached Category 4 (the highest level on the scale is 5). It was the worst in the state of Louisiana in 165 years.
