The point at which electric vehicles will be mass adopted has been reached in the US.
According to an analysis by Bloomberg: “If the US follows the trend established by 18 countries that came before it, a quarter of new car sales could be electric by the end of 2025.” This was ahead of forecasts.
The magic figure, which has been chosen after studying mass EV-adoption in other countries, is five per cent of new car sales. Bloomberg points to an S-shaped adoption curve, which has held true for the adoption of many major technologies including mobile phones and LED light bulbs. Adoption is initially slow - and, in the case of EVs, this is as a result of a lack of charging points; the expense of the vehicles and a lack of supply, but when mass adoption starts, then it happens rapidly.
The Bloomberg report points to what has already happened in South Korea (from 2021) and its similarity to the adoption rates in China (2018) and Norway (2013). Bloomberg adds: “The next major car markets approaching the tipping point this year include Canada, Australia and Spain.”
Manufacturers are already ramping up production with Volkswagen, Ford and BMW all aiming for 50 percent (or more) of their global sales to be fully electric by the end of this decade. However, should demand rapidly rise, there could be an issue with sourcing the metals required for production of electric car batteries.
In May, Ernst & Young Global released a report, which revealed that, for the first time, half of global car buyers were looking for an electric vehicle.
The survey of 13,000 people in 18 countries shows that car buyers in Italy (73 percent), China (69 percent) and South Korea (63 percent) are the most committed to buying an EV, while consumers in Australia (38 percent) and the US (29 percent) are the least committed.
The EY Mobility Consumer Index stated that, overall, 52 percent of respondents wanted an EV; and this represented a rise of 22 percentage points in just two years.
Randy Miller, EY Global Advanced Manufacturing & Mobility Leader said: “These findings truly mark a tipping point in the global car-buying market. The speed of this change has also been eye-opening.” He added: “There is no doubt that global gas price rises have played their part in making internal combustion engines more expensive, but environmental concerns also remain top of the list of motivators. Consumers are becoming increasingly socially and environmentally conscious, and they’re willing to pay a premium to meet their environmental standards. It is now up to the industry to meet this demand. If manufacturers are not aware of this trend already, they’re behind the curve and they need to catch up fast.”
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